Fiestas-Flores, JericoJericoFiestas-FloresHiga, MinoruMinoruHigaMontoya-Zumaeta, Javier G.Javier G.Montoya-Zumaeta2025-06-102025-06-102025-05-30https://boris-portal.unibe.ch/handle/20.500.12422/211765We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic across Peru to examine its impacts on deforestation. We find that COVID-19 explains one-third of the increase in deforestation in 2020. We estimate that a 10 % increase in COVID-19 cases increases deforestation by 1.5 %. This impact is exacerbated in districts with coca production or illegal mining. Pandemic-driven deforestation increased CO2 emissions by over 8 million tons, representing a social cost five times the national budget for forest management. These findings underscore the vulnerability of environmental monitoring and enforcement to external shocks in developing countries.enrainforestpandemicssocial costCO2 emissions300 - Social sciences, sociology & anthropology::330 - Economicsarticle10.48620/8840410.1016/j.tfp.2025.100888