Chen, KaiKaiChenDe Schrijver, EvanEvanDe SchrijverSivaraj, SidharthSidharthSivarajSera, FrancescoFrancescoSeraScovronick, NoahNoahScovronickJiang, LeiwenLeiwenJiangRoye, DominicDominicRoyeLavigne, EricEricLavigneKyselý, JanJanKyselýUrban, AlešAlešUrbanSchneider, AlexandraAlexandraSchneiderHuber, VeronikaVeronikaHuberMadureira, JoanaJoanaMadureiraMistry, Malcolm NMalcolm NMistryCvijanovic, IvanaIvanaCvijanovicGasparrini, AntonioAntonioGasparriniVicedo Cabrera, Ana MariaAna MariaVicedo Cabrera2024-10-262024-10-262024-02-27https://boris-portal.unibe.ch/handle/20.500.12422/174969Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.en600 - Technology::610 - Medicine & health300 - Social sciences, sociology & anthropology::360 - Social problems & social servicesarticle10.48350/1935383841364810.1038/s41467-024-45901-z