Trade-off or co-evolution? Support for climate change policy in times of crisis

Abstract

As governments intensify efforts to decarbonize their energy systems in response to climate change, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has (re-)introduced energy security as a salient and potentially competing policy priority. This study investigates whether the renewed emphasis on energy security expands the coalition supporting the energy transition or, conversely, creates a new axis of conflict that complicates public support. We argue that the energy crisis may simultaneously erode and reinforce public backing for climate mitigation policies, contingent on whether citizens view domestic renewable energy and energy security as complementary or conflicting goals. Using original survey data from Germany and Switzerland, we find that public opinion is divided on the perceived trade-off between energy security and the energy transition. Despite country-specific differences, individuals prioritizing energy security are consistently more likely to perceive a conflict between the two objectives. The findings highlight the need for policy strategies that frame climate and security goals as mutually reinforcing to sustain public support.