Abrupt Climate Changes and Tipping Points: Epistemic and Methodological Issues

Large-scale and discontinuous rapid transitions in the climate and Earth systems constitute one of the most concerning, yet in many ways one of the least understood aspects of climate change. On the one hand, because of their potential huge impacts on human and ecological systems, it is argued that climate tipping points and their interactions (potentially leading to cascading effects) help “to define that we are in a climate emergency.” On the other hand, it is largely acknowledged that making quantitative (e.g., probabilistic) statements about abrupt climate changes and tipping points is extremely challenging. Some form of tension thus emerges from these two sides of abrupt climate changes and underlies the development of the very notion of climate tipping point. This tension finds its roots in the many epistemic and methodological issues that arise in the context of abrupt climate changes and tipping points. This contribution aims to provide an overview of these issues in a philosophy of science perspective; the expectation is that such a conceptual perspective can help to improve our understanding of the specific challenges related to abrupt climate changes and tipping points.