COVID-19 impacts on Amazon deforestation

Abstract

We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic across Peru to examine its impacts on deforestation. We find that COVID-19 explains one-third of the increase in deforestation in 2020. We estimate that a 10 % increase in COVID-19 cases increases deforestation by 1.5 %. This impact is exacerbated in districts with coca production or illegal mining. Pandemic-driven deforestation increased CO2 emissions by over 8 million tons, representing a social cost five times the national budget for forest management. These findings underscore the vulnerability of environmental monitoring and enforcement to external shocks in developing countries.