Assessing farmers’ income vulnerability to vanilla and clove export economies in northeastern Madagascar using land-use change modelling

Using a participatory Bayesian network-based land-use decision model, we simulate future land-use patterns under various scenarios, including changes in vanilla and clove market prices as well as changes in irrigation water availability and potential harvest failures. Findings indicate that specifically the vanilla value chain (compared to the clove value chain) has a major influence on farmers income vulnerability. Abandoning vanilla cultivation may lead to poverty once income from vanilla reaches a certain threshold. By comparing farmer’s income gains from cash crop production with costs for buying rice to cover basic needs, we show that while focusing on cash crop production is more lucrative, it is, however, highly risky with regard to climate change, price volatility and possible crop thefts. Such lock-in-effects in cash crops, like the vanilla ones in northeastern Madagascar, are essential to be considered, when designing policies for a more sustainable development of resource-rich but poverty-prone regions.