Understanding threat appraisal and protective action concerning forest fires in low-exposure regions: an application of the protective action decision model

Progressing climate change and escalating global warming are increasing the danger of forest fires. Unlike regions with a history of forest fires and recurrent periods of elevated fire danger, areas north of the European Alps have had limited exposure to this hazard. As a result, residents have little experience, knowledge, or awareness of protective behaviours during high-danger periods and in forest fire prevention. This study aimed to enhance our understanding of the factors influencing threat appraisal and protective behaviours related to forest fire prevention among recreational forest visitors in low-exposure regions. Informed by the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), we conducted a standardized online survey involving 809 Swiss residents from two areas: one experiencing minimal forest fire incidents north of the Alps and one in an intra-Alpine valley with a history of forest fires. Our findings indicate that social cues (descriptive and injunctive social norms) have a greater effect on danger assessments and behaviour intentions than environmental cues, and that incongruent descriptive social norms reduce the effect of injunctive social norms. Environmental cues (dryness of the surroundings) had an ambiguous effect, suggesting that the dryness signals were either misinterpreted or deemed less significant. Our results also showed that protective behaviours are based on expected frequency of occurrence of future events, expected severity of damage to the forest, and emotional responses (worries) rather than expected personal damage, and are reduced by expected costs of seeking information and of not having a (controlled) outdoor fire. Our findings underscore the importance of better understanding the interplay between environmental and social cues and emphasize the potential of highlighting the broader implications of forest fires in terms of damage to the forest. They provide first starting points for prevention communication strategies in areas whose exposure to date has been low.