Modelling the habitat selection of the bearded vulture to predict areas of potential conflict with wind energy development in the Swiss Alps

Global warming impels countries to dramatically reduce their release of greenhouse gas emissions and increase their reliance on green energy, notably wind power. Yet, without cautious planning, the sprawl of wind turbines could negatively impact biodiversity, especially flying vertebrates that are otherwise already threatened. Inherent risks for vulnerable and endangered species are usually mitigated by banning constructions within buffer areas around nesting locations. This approach, however, neglects species’ range dynamics and particularly falls short of protecting expanding populations, as in the case of
natural returns or reintroduction programmes. We present here an alternative approach to mitigate wildlife-infrastructure conflicts, applying it to the bearded vulture, a species reintroduced in the European Alps. Combining casual observations and GPS locations of tagged individuals, we built several predictive distribution models with respect to bearded vulture age class and season and tested for models’ ability to correctly predict its future expansion in the Alps. Although immature and adult birds showed different habitat selection
patterns, both in summer and winter, wide areas of the Swiss Alps (40%) offer
suitable habitat. The above combined information enabled correctly predicting today’s use by breeding bearded vultures of previously unused areas. This study not only provides a detailed analysis of the bearded vulture’s ecological requirements in the Alps but also helps delineating areas where conflicts with wind energy production and other aerial infrastructure will likely occur in Switzerland. The resulting maps provide a large-scale planning tool that companies, landscape planners and wildlife managers can use in any environmental risk assessments.