Mapping ecosystem service (ES) supply, demand, and flow – and identifying supply/demand mismatches – has become a focus of ES research and has benefitted from recent advances in modelling techniques and their combination with Geographic Information Systems. But few studies have been done in data-scarce tropical forest frontiers and these were limited in terms of area, land uses, and number and types of ES. Aiming to evolve contemporary approaches, we used Bayesian networks to model and map nine ES across Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region for local stakeholders. Results show that while there is a high supply of multiple ES at regional level, demand for ES in urban and rapidly developing agricultural areas is not fully covered. Further, we identified a clear connection between land tenure and ES outcomes for rural communities. Agricultural concessions and protected areas with restricted access for the local population were related to lower ES flows and more supply/ demand mismatches than community forests or untenured land. For future research on local ES outcomes in tropical forest frontiers, we recommend combined mismatch and flow analyses under consideration of tenurial rights.
