The Impact of Weather Forecasts on Ski Demand
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BORIS DOI
Description
In the wake of stagnating demand across Alpine ski areas, new pricing regimes and
recent advances in the availability of precise local weather forecasts, the relation of
weather forecasts to ski demand gains new relevance. I use an activity choice
framework in which agents evaluate the utility of skiing relative to alternative
opportunities. Thereby, agents decide early based on forecasts or spontaneously
based on observed weather outcomes. By matching the demand data of three Swiss
ski areas to local forecast and weather data, I show that forecast errors affect skiing
demand above the variation through weather alone. Furthermore, I find suggestive
evidence that reactions to pessimistic forecast errors exceed those to optimistic errors
when agents are more risk averse, less enthusiastic towards skiing or the ski area is
located further into the Alps.
recent advances in the availability of precise local weather forecasts, the relation of
weather forecasts to ski demand gains new relevance. I use an activity choice
framework in which agents evaluate the utility of skiing relative to alternative
opportunities. Thereby, agents decide early based on forecasts or spontaneously
based on observed weather outcomes. By matching the demand data of three Swiss
ski areas to local forecast and weather data, I show that forecast errors affect skiing
demand above the variation through weather alone. Furthermore, I find suggestive
evidence that reactions to pessimistic forecast errors exceed those to optimistic errors
when agents are more risk averse, less enthusiastic towards skiing or the ski area is
located further into the Alps.
Date of Publication
2023-04
Publication Type
Working Paper
Language(s)
en
Additional Credits
Publisher
CRED - Center for Regional Economic Development
Access(Rights)
open.access