Evolution of the Swiss pork production systems and logistics: the impact on infectious disease resilience.

Abstract

Livestock production systems are complex and evolve over time, affecting their adaptability to economic, political, and disease-related changes. In Europe, disease resilience is crucial due to threats like the African swine fever virus, which jeopardizes pork production stability. The European Union identifies farm production type as a key risk factor for disease spread, making it important to track changes in farm production types to assess disease risk. However, detailed production type data is often lacking in national databases. For Swiss pig farms, we used prediction and clustering algorithms to classify 9'687 - 11'247 trading farms between 2014 and 2019 by one of eleven production types. We then analyzed the pig trade network and stratified farm centrality measures (ICC and OCC) by production type. We found that 145 farms belonging to three production types have substantially higher ICC and OCC than other farms, suggesting that they could be the target of disease surveillance programs. Our predictions until 2025 show an increase both in overall pig trade network connectivity and in proportion of production types with high ICC and OCC, indicating that the structural changes in the Swiss pig production system may increase infectious disease exposure over time.