Benchmarking Stroke Outcome Prediction through Comprehensive Data Analysis - NeuralCup 2023.

Abstract

Stroke is a significant cause of mortality and long-term disability worldwide, with variable recovery trajectories posing substantial challenges in anticipating post-event care and rehabilitation planning. The NeuralCup 2023 consortium was established to address these challenges by comparing the predictability of stroke outcome models through a collaborative, data-driven approach. This study presents the consortium's findings, which involved 15 participating teams worldwide. Using a comprehensive dataset, which included clinical and imaging data, we conducted an open competition to identify and compare predictors of motor, cognitive, and neuropsychological (emotional) outcomes one-year post-stroke. Analyses incorporated both traditional and novel methods, including machine learning algorithms. These efforts culminated in the search for 'optimal recipes' for predicting each domain through an exhaustive exploration of the features of all the approaches. Key predictors included lesion characteristics, T1-weighted MRI sequences, and demographic factors. Notably, integrating FLAIR imaging and white matter tract analysis emerged as crucial to improving the accuracy of cognitive and motor outcome predictions, respectively. These findings advocate for a tailored, multifaceted approach to stroke outcome prediction, underscoring the potential of collaborative data science in addressing complex neurological prognostication challenges. This study also sets a new benchmark methodology in stroke research, offering a foundational step toward personalized care strategies that could significantly impact recovery planning and quality of life for stroke survivors.