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Uncertainties of predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations

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dc.contributor.authorOeschger, H.
dc.contributor.authorHeimann, M.
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-02T17:49:06Z
dc.date.available2024-09-02T17:49:06Z
dc.date.issued1983
dc.description.abstractLinear carbon cycle models, tuned to reproduce the CO2 increase observed at Mauna Loa, independently of their individual assumptions, predict almost identical CO2 concentration trends for fossil energy scenarios assuming a slightly increasing production in the next few decades. The basic information for such prognoses therefore is the airborne fraction observed over the last 20 years. Uncertainties in this quantity are due to possible errors in the estimate of fossil fuel consumption and the corresponding CO2 emission, possible natural fluctuations in the baseline CO2 level, and uncertainties regarding the biospheric CO2 input and uptake as a result of deforestation and reforestation and land management. Depending on different assumptions the effective airborne fraction, defined as the ratio of CO2 increase due to fossil fuel CO2 alone to the integrated CO2 production, might be as low as 0.38 or as high as 0.72, compared to the apparent airborne fraction of 0.55. The effective airborne fraction derived from carbon cycle models, considering only the CO2 uptake by the ocean, lies in the range 0.60–0.70. A value as low as 0.40 seems therefore highly improbable. A high biospheric anthropogenic CO2 input therefore must have been accompanied by a high CO2 fertilization effect. Model considerations, however, are not in contradiction with a high biospheric input with the maximum production before 1958, which also would imply low preindustrial CO2 concentrations in the range 270–280 ppm as reported recently.
dc.description.numberOfPages5
dc.identifier.doi10.48350/158708
dc.identifier.publisherDOI10.1029/JC088iC02p01258
dc.identifier.urihttps://boris-portal.unibe.ch/handle/20.500.12422/43322
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
dc.relation.issn2169-9275
dc.relation.organizationDCD5A442BF29E17DE0405C82790C4DE2
dc.subject.ddc500 - Science::530 - Physics
dc.titleUncertainties of predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations
dc.typearticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage1262
oaire.citation.issueC2
oaire.citation.startPage1258
oaire.citation.volume88
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unibe.contributor.rolecreator
unibe.contributor.rolecreator
unibe.date.licenseChanged2021-09-30 07:10:37
unibe.description.ispublishedpub
unibe.eprints.legacyId158708
unibe.journal.abbrevTitleJ. Geophys. Res. Oceans
unibe.refereedTRUE
unibe.subtype.articlejournal

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