Citizens ditching cars: how do assessments of SDG interactions predict a modal shift towards low-carbon urban transport choices?

In light of climate change, urbanization and worldwide mobility trends, the requirements for transforming urban transport systems towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are twofold. First, understanding the systemic interactions underlying sustainable development as envisioned in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is key. In the context of urban transport systems, this includes understanding what hinders or fosters reduced carbon emissions. Second, systemic knowledge must be coupled with a strong societal and political engagement. This study analyses whether citizen assessments of key SDG interactions in urban transport systems play a role in predicting individual transport mode choices. Normatively, changes in individually held systemic perspectives could encourage greater use of low-carbon transport modes in urban and peri-urban areas, which would be an essential step toward climate change mitigation. We use survey data (n = 822) to measure citizens’ perspectives on the urban transport system and their transportation habits in terms of car driving, cycling, or public transport. We use a Bayesian multilevel regression model to investigate ‘How do citizen assessments of SDG interactions influence transport mode choices?’. We find that negative citizen assessments of the influence of car-related (1) infrastructure and (2) transport affordability on reduced carbon emissions are associated with reduced frequency of car-driving. Conversely, we find that positive citizen assessments of the influence of (3) road safety for cyclists and (4) public transport affordability on reduced carbon emissions are associated with increased frequency of cycling and public transport use, respectively.