Alteration of natural ³⁷Ar activity concentration in the subsurface by gas transport and water infiltration

High ³⁷Ar activity concentration in soil gas is proposed as a key evidence for the detection of underground nuclear explosion by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. However, such a detection is challenged by the natural background of ³⁷Ar in the subsurface, mainly due to Ca activation by cosmic rays. A better understanding and improved capability to predict ³⁷Ar activity concentration in the subsurface and its spatial and temporal variability is thus required. A numerical model integrating ³⁷Ar production and transport in the subsurface is developed, including variable soil water content and water infiltration at the surface. A parameterized equation for ³⁷Ar production in the first 15 m below the surface is studied, taking into account the major production reactions and the moderation effect of soil water content. Using sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification, a realistic and comprehensive probability distribution of natural ³⁷Ar activity concentrations in soil gas is proposed, including the effects of water infiltration. Site location and soil composition are identified as the parameters allowing for a most effective reduction of the possible range of ³⁷Ar activity concentrations. The influence of soil water content on ³⁷Ar production is shown to be negligible to first order, while ³⁷Ar activity concentration in soil gas and its temporal variability appear to be strongly influenced by transient water infiltration events. These results will be used as a basis for practical CTBTO concepts of operation during an OSI.