Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Zone

DOI
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Every austral spring when Antarctic sea ice melts, favorable growing conditions lead to an intense phytoplankton bloom, which supports much of the local marine ecosystem. Recent studies have found that Antarctic sea ice is predictable several years in advance, suggesting that the spring bloom might exhibit similar predictability. Using a suite of perfect model predictability experiments, we find that November net primary production (NPP) is potentially predictable 7 to 10 years in advance in many Southern Ocean regions. Sea ice extent predictability peaks in late winter, followed by absorbed shortwave radiation and NPP with a 2 to 3 months lag. This seasonal progression of predictability supports our hypothesis that sea ice and light limitation control the inherent predictability of the spring bloom. Our results suggest skillful interannual predictions of NPP may be achievable, with implications for managing fisheries and the marine ecosystem, and guiding conservation policy in the Southern Ocean.
Date Issued
2023-10-28
Publication Type
Article
Subject(s)
Language(s)
en
Author(s)
Buchovecky, Benjamin
MacGilchrist, Graeme A.
Bushuk, Mitchell
Haumann, F. Alexander
Dunne, John
Additional Credits
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
Wiley
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Access(Rights)
open.access
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