Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system
to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.
to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.
Date Issued
2013
Publication Type
Article
Subject(s)
Language(s)
en
Additional Credits
Journal
Methodology and computing in applied probability
Publisher
Springer
ISSN
1387-5841
Access(Rights)
open.access